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Covid-19 Follows Fixed Pattern

[Picture source:] AP Photo/Mary Altaffer


Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern

[Source: Townhall]

Marina Medvin

[Author:] Marina Medvin

Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University, who also serves on the research and development advisory board for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, plotted the rates of new coronavirus infections of the U.S., U.K., Sweden, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, France, Germany, and Spain. The numbers told a shocking story: irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week.

The Wuhan Virus follows its own pattern, he told Mako, an Israeli news agency. It is a fixed pattern that is not dependent on freedom or quarantine. “There is a decline in the number of infections even [in countries] without closures, and it is similar to the countries with closures,” he wrote in his paper.

“Is the coronavirus expansion exponential? The answer by the numbers is simple: no. Expansion begins exponentially but fades quickly after about eight weeks,” Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel concluded. The reason why coronavirus follows a fixed pattern is yet unknown. “I have no explanation,” he told Mako, “There are is kinds of speculation: maybe it’s climate-related, maybe the virus has its own life cycle.” 

But what about Italy and their staggering 12% mortality rate? “The health system in Italy has its own problems. It has nothing to do with coronavirus. In 2017 it also collapsed because of the flu,” Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel told the news agency. Indeed, Italy’s exceptionally high coronavirus mortality rate is eerily reminiscent of their unusually high flu mortality rates. Supportive of this theory, Germany, has low flu infection and mortality rates and similarly low coronavirus rates.

Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel concludes in his analysis summary paper that the data from the past 50 days indicates that the closure policies of the quarantine countries can be replaced by more moderate social distancing policies. The numbers simply do not support quarantine or economic closure. 

On the reasonableness of Israel’s unprecedented quarantine and closure, he commented to the news agency, “I think it’s mass hysteria. I have no other way to describe it. 4,500 people die each year from the flu in Israel because of complications, so close the country because of that? No. I don’t see a reason to do it because of a lower-risk epidemic.” 

While the American policies remain less restrictive than those of Israel, it is important to understand the origins of our own “mass hysteria” response. President Trump urged a strong coronavirus response after consulting with Dr. Fauci and his team, who relied on a British model predicting 2.2 million deaths in the United States and 500,000 deaths in the U.K. But that model was developed by Professor Neil Ferguson, who had a history of wildly overestimating death rates through his prediction models. Professor Ferguson was not known for his reliability, and his 2001 disease model was criticized as “not fit for purpose” after it predicted that up to 150,000 people could die in the U.K. from mad cow disease (177 deaths to date). Ferguson’s U.K. coronavirus deaths prediction is now down to 20,000 people, 4% of the original prediction.

Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel has mathematically shown us that coronavirus closures were a mistake. It’s a tough reality. Americans lost their jobs and businesses went under because the United States, along with most first world nations, acted on the chilling predictions of a severely flawed model, a reading of Professor Ferguson’s tarot cards. Hindsight is 20/20, so we have to be realistic with our criticism. President Trump did not want 2.2 million Americans to die and did what he thought was necessary to save our lives, relying on a model his advisors told him was trustworthy. It’s done. It happened. But it doesn’t mean that he should continue the course. 

It’s been one month since our country declared a national coronavirus emergency and life as we knew it had ceased. Americans have been growing agitated, unwilling to continue in this way, knowing something is wrong. Trump has sensed that his constituency is displeased with the authoritarian power grab by our Governors and has repeatedly stated that he wishes to reopen the country, but that he needs more information to make the right decision. Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel’s data analysis provides Trump with the assurance that he needs to reopen America. 

Mr. President, please review Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel’s research and take bold steps to mitigate the damage to our economy. Now that we see the actual data, continuing the closure course is a greater error, a knowing error, one that can no longer be justified by good intentions.


Israeli Professor Debunks Government Claims That Lockdowns Slow Coronavirus Infection, Proves Worldwide Decline In Spread

[Source : Townhall]

Marina Medvin

[Author:] Marina Medvin

Professor Isaac Ben-Israel (also known as Yitzhak Ben Israel) published an English translation of his analysis on worldwide coronavirus infection decline, The End of Exponential Growth: The Decline in the Spread of Coronavirus.

As I wrote last week, professor Ben-Israel published a Hebrew paper comparing the rates of coronavirus infections in the U.S., the U.K., Sweden, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, France, Germany, and Spain over an eight-week period. His team’s graphs showed a contradiction to what Americans would have expected to see after listening to our governors’ lockdown orders: irrespective of whether a country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. Ben-Israel’s graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week.

Professor Isaac Ben-Israel has provided Townhall with a copy of the English version of his study.

“Our analysis shows that this is a constant pattern across countries. Surprisingly, this pattern is common to countries that have taken a severe lockdown, including an economy paralysis, as well as to countries that implemented a far more lenient policy and have continued in ordinary life,” writes Professor Isaac Ben-Israel in the introduction of the translated study. His conclusion is simple: coronavirus “declines even without a complete lockdown.” 

Professor Ben-Israel began the analysis to find out whether the hypothesized coronavirus exponential growth rate is accurate. His research proved the answer is no. But aside from proving that the infection rate was not exponential in Israel, or anywhere else in the world, his investigation showed “a global phenomenon” of infection rate decline as opposed to exponential growth. “The spread of the virus starts at an exponential rate, however, it continues to moderate and ultimately fades after 8 weeks or so since its outbreak,” Professor Ben-Israel explains.

“It is interesting to note,” he writes, “that this pattern, mainly the onset rapid growth and the following decline in the number of new daily patients, is still shared amongst countries that responded in significantly different ways.” He demonstrates this point by comparing infection rates in Italy, a country that imposed a complete lockdown, with Sweden, which did not.

Most importantly, Professor Ben-Israel debunks the misconception of government lockdowns or controls as a leading cause of coronavirus infection rate reductions. “Some may claim that the decline in the number of additional patients every day is a result of the tight lockdown imposed by the government and health authorities. Examining the data of different countries around the world casts a heavy question mark on the above statement. It turns out that similar pattern – a rapid increase in infections that reaches a peak in the sixth week and declines from the eighth week – is common to all countries in which the disease was discovered, regardless of their response policies: some imposed a severe and immediate lockdown that included not only ‘social distancing’ and banning crowding, but also an economic shutdown (like Israel); some ‘ignored’ the infection and continued almost a normal life (such as Taiwan, Korea or Sweden), and some initially adopted a lenient policy but soon reversed to a complete lockdown (such as Italy or the State of New York). Nonetheless, the data shows similar time constants amongst all these countries in regard to the initial rapid growth and the decline of the disease.”

Professor Ben-Israel concludes the same as we have heard from some conservative pundits, like Jesse Kelly. “Severe lockdown has some negative implications. Its immediate result is an increase in the level of unemployment and the drop in GDP … This will eventually lead to an increase in poverty, as well as an increase in loss of human life due to other diseases.” 

Nonetheless, Ben-Israel recognizes the risk of the disease and notes that “it is advisable to continue with low-cost measures, such as wearing masks, expanding testing for defined populations and prohibiting mass gatherings.” 

President Trump’s Guidelines for Opening Up America Again include these low-cost infection prevention measures such as social distancing and masks. Still, liberal Governors, such as Virginia’s Ralph Northam, are not inclined to give up their authoritarian control of the people and businesses. In the meantime, 78% of Virginia restaurant workers have lost their jobs since Northam implemented his closures in March. Northam advised just a day ago that he’s not budging and doubled down on this compulsory closure policy, claiming his policy is saving lives. Economic well-being, while a legal requirement for the exercise of a Virginia governor’s authority, appears to be of no concern to Northam.

All American leaders need to review Professor Isaac Ben-Israel’s analysis. We need to stop our reliance on Dr. Fauci and company, who have demonstrated time and time again that reality and economics play no role in their decision-making. Fauci does not understand the limitations of government powers in the United States, nor the spirit of the American people. Professor Ben-Israel showed us that closures do not reduce the spread of coronavirus. We need to accept this reality, we need to admit we overreacted and that coronavirus closures were a mistake, and we need to go back to work. Now. 

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